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Burn rate and runway: the two numbers every investor update starts with

Runway is the question under every board meeting: how many months until the money runs out? The arithmetic is one division. Getting the inputs right is the hard part, and it’s where most founder spreadsheets quietly flatter themselves.

Topic
Runway
Reading time
3 min
Updated
A diagram of the idea. Point at it; nothing in it is anyone’s real numbers.

Gross burn, net burn

Gross burn is everything the company spends in a month: payroll, rent, software, contractors, cloud. Net burn is gross burn less the cash that came in, mostly from customers. Runway is your cash balance divided by net burn. A company with $2.4 million in the bank and $200,000 of net burn a month has twelve months.

Measure all three from cash, not from the P&L. Burn is a cash question, and the income statement leaves out things that spend cash (equipment, an annual prepayment, paying down a loan) and includes things that don’t (stock-based compensation, depreciation).

Why one month lies

Cash moves in lumps. An annual software contract paid in January, a customer’s yearly invoice collected in March, a quarterly tax payment: any single month can be far from the run rate. Use the average of the last three months, and then look at what is about to change.

Runway is a forecast, so it should include what you’ve already committed to: the engineers starting next quarter, the lease you just signed, the price increase from your cloud provider. Revenue you hope to close shouldn’t be in it. Investors will rebuild the number from your statements, and a 13-week cash flow is how you check it week by week.

A worked example. Cash is $2,400,000. Net burn over the last three months was $180,000, $230,000 and $190,000: an average of $200,000, so twelve months on today’s burn. Two engineers start next quarter at a fully loaded $20,000 a month each, salary plus employer taxes and benefits. Net burn becomes $240,000, and runway is $2,400,000 ÷ $240,000, or ten months. Two months disappear without anyone spending a dollar yet, which is why committed costs belong in the number before they hit the bank.

Two runways from the same balanceExhibit
Cash, from closed booksToday’s burn, 3-month averageWith committed hires
Gross burn
Everything out, in a month
Net burn
Out, less what came in
Runway
Cash ÷ net burn, in months
Illustrative shape, no amounts. The solid line is closed months; both projections start from today’s balance.

What closed books add

Burn taken from books that close every month can be split by what drives it: headcount, infrastructure, sales and marketing. That split is what makes the burn multiple (net burn divided by net new ARR) mean something, and it answers the next question in every board meeting, which is which lever moves runway the most.

The burn multiple uses the same period on both sides. A company that burned $600,000 in a quarter and added $400,000 of net new ARR has a burn multiple of 1.5: it spent $1.50 for each dollar of new recurring revenue. Lower is better, and a multiple taken from books that don’t close is a guess divided by a guess.

Common questions

How many months of runway should a startup have?

There’s no rule, but common advice is to raise enough for 18 to 24 months, and to start raising the next round with plenty left, because a round can take months to close. Below that, cutting burn is usually cheaper than raising in a hurry.

Should runway include expected revenue growth?

Keep two numbers. The conservative one assumes revenue stays where it is today, and it’s the one to plan hiring against. The other includes the growth you expect, clearly labeled as a plan. Mixing them into one figure is how a company finds out about its runway from its bank balance.

Does stock-based compensation count toward burn?

No. Stock-based compensation and depreciation are expenses on the P&L but spend no cash, so they don’t belong in burn. The reverse also holds: buying laptops, prepaying a year of software or repaying a loan spends cash without showing up as an expense in that month, and all of them belong in burn.

What does “default alive” mean?

Paul Graham’s phrase for a company that reaches profitability on its current cash, if its expenses stay where they are and revenue keeps growing at its recent rate. It’s a useful second question after runway: not just how long the money lasts, but whether the business gets to break even before it runs out.

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General information for US companies, not tax, legal or accounting advice for yours. Rules and thresholds change; confirm the specifics with a CPA before you act on them.